Islamic State set for serious losses in Iraq in 2016

Significance

The Baghdad government is stabilising Ramadi after the coalition and Iraqi government forces recaptured it from ISG last month. Once this operation is complete, the focus will move to an offensive on the group's Iraqi 'capital' of Mosul. However the road to Mosul will be long given the challenges involved in any attempt to retake this large and populous Sunni Arab city.

Impacts

• Federal security forces will slowly regain popular credibility.
• Mosul's Sunnis may receive strong assurances of power-sharing.
• Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi will receive a gradual boost against his Shia militia rivals.
• Lebanon, Jordan and western Syria could face an intensified threat if ISG is evicted from Iraq and eastern Syria.
• The Iraqi Kurds will use their involvement in the Mosul campaign to build international goodwill for an independence bid.