Business to face pressures in UK EU poll

Significance

Recent developments have turned a 2016 date for the UK referendum on continued EU membership from a strong possibility into a strong probability. The referendum has had a comparatively modest impact on the UK business community and external investors so far. Given the likely timetable, that will change this year.

Impacts

• In the campaign period, business decisions could be put on hold, but the campaign is likely to last only a few months.
• The negative investment impact of 'Brexit' would be far greater than any freeze on investment decisions during the campaign.
• Referendum-related uncertainty will be elevated by doubts over the reliability of opinion polls.
• There is likely to be enough doubt over the outcome of the vote to generate business opportunities in the provision of Brexit advice.
• The trading of competing claims about the economic and commercial effects of 'in' and 'out' could fuel public confusion and suspicion.