Yemen peace talks hang on recognition of Huthi power

Significance

The Saudi-led coalition has been fighting to remove Huthi rebels from central government for the past nine months. The core issue driving the conflict is the Huthis' bid to translate their rapid military advances of 2014-15 into a strong role within Yemen's new political system. Taking advantage of the power vacuum that followed the uprising against President Saleh in 2011, the militant movement has transformed rapidly from a regional resistance group into a major national force that took over the capital in September 2014.

Impacts

• The Saudi and UAE militaries are prepared for a long war of attrition, combined with a political drive to win over Yemeni tribes.
• The anti-Huthi coalition will avoid launching an offensive into the Huthi heartlands of Sa'ada and Hajjah provinces.
• Given their lack of government experience, the Huthis know they will ultimately need to strike a deal with established political factions.
• Sectarianism will increase the longer the conflict continues.