Russia's Syria intervention will empower jihadists

Significance

Russia is primarily attacking the Syrian opposition, forcing rebel groups to rely more heavily on Syrian al-Qaida-affiliated Jabhat al-Nusra (JN) for military support. Meanwhile, Russia is launching relatively few strikes on Islamic State group (ISG), which is emphasising its hostility towards Russia in order to recruit, and to advance militarily.

Impacts

• Russia's escalation will prolong Syria's civil war for several years, thereby promoting further radicalisation.
• Its continuation will ensure numerous extremist groups, including ISG, retain sanctuary in Syria.
• Russia will use ISG-linked terrorist attacks in the West to justify its expanded military presence in the Middle East.
• ISG will likely increase efforts to develop regional affiliates to gain strategic resilience.
• Russia will increase its leverage internationally, even as it exacerbates the security threat posed by ISG and al-Qaida.