Syrian Kurds will bolster autonomy via US alliance

Significance

The Syrian Kurds have made significant advances against ISG along Syria's northern border with Turkey in the past year thanks to US air support. Their militias are now a vital partner in US-led efforts to roll back ISG in Syria; however, they are also looking to Russia for support after its entry into the Syrian theatre in September.

Impacts

• Russia, Iran and the Assad regime may seek a deal with the Kurds that allows them to retain autonomy under any future government.
• US support for the Syrian Kurds will strain rather than rupture Washington's ties with Ankara.
• Ankara is likely to avoid military intervention against the Syrian Kurds so long as they avoid declaring independence.
• The risk of ethnic clashes and cleansing between Kurds and Arabs in areas liberated from ISG is high.