Iraqi Kurds likely to de-escalate political crisis

Subject

Government crisis in Iraqi Kurdistan.

Significance

The long-awaited reshuffle of the coalition government in Iraqi Kurdistan began on October 11 as the dominant Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) announced that its major partner, the Gorran movement, would be ejected from the coalition government.

Impacts

• Iraqi Kurdistan will remain a secure environment, with the parties retaining firm control of security organs and public assembly.
• Ties with Baghdad are unlikely to improve, meaning that Irbil will export Kirkuk oil and be economically independent through 2015-16.
• The PUK will have a 'swing vote' in the negotiations, and may use this to maintain its leverage over both the KDP and the KDP's opponents.