Nicaraguan crime falls but political unrest will rise

Subject

Despite Nicaragua's low crime rates and generally popular government, political tensions simmer

Significance

Nicaragua has long avoided the high levels of violent crime suffered by its northern neighbours and is becoming safer, with recent data indicating that the country's murder rate is falling. However, as opposition to the government becomes more vocal, a rise in political violence is undermining such improvements.

Impacts

• Political protests will likely spread from Managua to other cities in the run-up to the 2016 polls.
• Increased political violence may lead to excessive force being used by security forces.
• Radicals opposed to the government may attempt to provoke such excessive force to stir anti-government feeling.
• Further social unrest will take place as Nicaragua's interoceanic canal project gets underway.