Local ceasefires in Libya encourage unity agreement

Significance

They will probably discuss the final draft of the peace agreement between the two main rival political blocs: the pro-Islamist Libya Dawn bloc led by the Tripoli-based General National Congress (GNC) parliament, and the Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR) supported by the anti-Islamist Dignity bloc led by General Khalifa Haftar. Efforts to reach agreement on creating a single government -- the Government of National Accord (GNA) -- have been bulding over the past year. This has stoked rejectionists and spoilers on both sides, although an increase in local ceasefire initiatives has increased the prospects of a deal.

Impacts

• Any new government would likely move quickly to sign deals with foreign companies on construction, electricity and water provision.
• However, it would likely be split between those preferring to work with European and Turkish or US and UK companies.
• Fragmentation and the need to meet urgent political deadlines, such as on the constitution, will hamper the GNA's effectiveness.