Spain's Catalonia poll to determine independence issue

Significance

Pro-independence parties are using the election to seek enough seats to initiate moves to independence in the next 18 months. While intensifying its campaigning against Catalan independence, the Spanish government will not recognise the poll as anything other than an 'ordinary' regional election. With the national government having denied pro-independence forces the possibility of an independence referendum, the use of a regular election could mean that they gain a local parliamentary majority to proceed without a majority of the local popular vote.

Impacts

• A pro-independence win will see fissures between those seeking a total break with Spain, and those wanting to negotiate something less.
• A pro-independence loss could see the emergence of a leftist coalition in Catalonia spanning pro-independence and unionist forces.
• Whoever wins, the outcome will point to the extent of constitutional reform that may occur after December's general election.
• Citizens is likely to replace the Popular Party (PP) as the main local opponent of Catalan nationalism.