Polish PiS may be largest party yet fail to govern

Significance

Right-wing Law and Justice (PiS), the main opposition party, may emerge from the elections as the largest parliamentary group. However, it could find itself in opposition for lack of partners. Even if it secures a parliamentary majority, on its own or heading a coalition, the new government could be dogged by tensions between its leader and the prime minister-designate.

Impacts

• PiS's pledges of socioeconomic reform and a more assertive international role suggest domestic and foreign policy discontinuity.
• However, the previous PiS government pursued relatively orthodox economic policies.
• PiS hostility to European integration was largely rhetorical; there may be less discontinuity in practice in economic and foreign policy.
• A PO-led coalition would be weak and unstable, uniting partners with different policy agendas and 'co-habiting' with a PiS president.