Lopez fortunes complicate MUD strategy in Venezuela

Significance

Lopez has received a lengthy prison sentence for his role in violent anti-government protests in February 2014. However, apart from some violent scuffles outside the court, news of the sentence has not, as yet, brought widespread popular protests.

Impacts

• The government will repress any effort to relaunch destabilising street demonstrations.
• A strong opposition election result would strengthen prospects for a recall referendum against Maduro in 2016.
• Owing to other foreign policy preoccupations, the EU and United States will not speak loudly in defence of Lopez.