Burundi assassination disrupts post-poll climate

Significance

A war hero from the 1993-2005 civil war, Nshirimana was the former head of the National Intelligence Service (SNR) and political-military advisor to President Pierre Nkurunziza. He was believed to be the coordinator of the violence prior to the July presidential election and commanded parallel chains of command within the Imbonerakure youth wing of the ruling National Council for the Defense of Democracy-Forces for the Defense of Democracy (CNDD-FDD). Nshirimana's death upsets the prevailing order of the president's central clique and is likely to destabilise politics even further.

Impacts

• Political instability will further harm relations with donors, who are likely to delay unfreezing of aid funds.
• Targeted sanctions on individuals in the security sector are possible.
• However, donors will seek to maintain Burundi's role in the peace-enforcement mission in Somalia given capacity pressures.
• Absent a full-blown insurgency, governments in regional blocs may play a relatively lacklustre role due to sovereignty concerns.