Prospects for Afghan peace talks are dwindling

Significance

The attack was an attempt to undermine the nine month old national unity government headed by President Ashraf Ghani, who is already losing public confidence since the cabinet is still incomplete and the country still lacks a viable security plan. Meanwhile, Taliban gains in the north have prompted the government to arm local militias to bolster its security forces. According to UN figures, the insurgency has left 974 dead and 1,963 injured in the first four months of 2015 -- a 16% rise on 2014.

Impacts

• Growing public discontent could open spaces for competing leaders and groups opposed to the government, threatening civil unrest.
• Absent a viable security strategy, NATO may slow the military drawdown, implying extended involvement.
• Foreign investors, especially China, could renege on their investment commitments if the Taliban continue taking new territory.