Libya's fragmented conflict may set back agreement

Significance

If a negotiated settlement is reached between the Libya Dawn bloc aligned with the General National Congress (GNC), and General Khalifa Haftar's Dignity bloc, loosely associated with the House of Representatives (HoR), its success during implementation will depend considerably on what happens to armed groups and militias. Small arms and light weapons have proliferated in Libya since the conflict in 2011 and the overthrow of the four-decade-old regime of former leader Muammar al-Qadhafi.

Impacts

• Hardline elements opposed to a unity government will encourage actions to undermine the negotiations and any agreement.
• Statements in the name of ISG in Libya may also target the proposed new government.
• Low- to mid-level insecurity will remain the norm in Libya.
• Competition for local power will lead to further disruptions of some oil operations.
• Effective demobilisation and disarmament will not happen before 2016 at the earliest.