Ukraine Donbas 'republics' will solidify state bodies

Significance

The deaths follow comments from Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko on May 19 that Kyiv was now engaged in a 'real war' with Russia. Kyiv is increasingly worried that renewed clashes in Donbas are indicative of a separatist offensive in the summer even as separatist areas develop state civil structures and take on the appearance of pseudo-states.

Impacts

• Development of 'separatist' government institutions will put them in the same league as other pseudo-states like Transnistria.
• Kyiv will use two Russian GRU captives as leverage for the release of the downed Ukrainian air force pilot Nadia Savchenko.
• Donbas 'separatist' republics will be a long-term drain on Russia.