China's GDP data will grow more reliable with time

Subject

The reliability of China's GDP data.

Significance

China's GDP figures are among the most closely watched economic data in the world. Yet the media and researchers question their reliability, particularly now that growth is slowing, fearing that the political imperative of demonstrating economic competence will push the leadership to 'massage' the figures. In fact, China's statistical system is under intense pressure to produce reliable data, and numerous innovations have been undertaken to upgrade it.

Impacts

• Political influence on economic data is primarily at the provincial and local levels.
• Difficulties in compiling accurate data imply some flexibility for the NBS in determining the values of short-run indicators.
• Quinquennial revisions based on economic censuses will continue to provide the most reliable data.