Turkish detente will bolster Saudi regional policy

Subject

Saudi-Turkish relations.

Significance

After ties soured in the wake of the 2011 Arab uprisings, the Saudi and Turkish leaderships are managing bilateral relations better in order to combat rising regional challenges. These include a potential agreement on Iran's nuclear programme, the expansion of the Islamic State group (ISG) and the stalemate in the Syrian rebel campaign to unseat President Bashar al-Assad. In particular, relations have improved at the leadership level, with the death of Saudi King Abdallah enabling a symbolic turning of a new page in the kingdom's foreign policy and a toning down in the kingdom's hostility towards the Muslim Brotherhood.

Impacts

• Saudi support for the Sisi regime could revive tensions with Turkey, particularly if Egypt intensifies its anti-Islamist crackdown further.
• Despite common concerns over ISG, both Turkey and Riyadh will limit their involvement in the military campaign owing to domestic concerns.
• The kingdom's change in tone towards the Brotherhood could strengthen its regional position by improving ties with key Islamist groups.
• Improved diplomacy could boost already strong trade ties.