Vietnamese political jockeying will intensify in 2015

Subject

Vietnam's political outlook in 2015.

Significance

Ahead of the Vietnamese Communist Party's (VCP) next congress in January 2016, political issues will loom large. A highly choreographed affair, the key political and administrative decisions will be reached before the congress. Meanwhile, various senior party and government leadership positions will be open for change, the results determining Vietnam's direction for 2016-20. During this time, despite President Truong Tan Sang's policy priorities in his January 19 lunar new year address (including national defence, party and state capacity building and socio-economic development), Vietnam will have a shifting political landscape.

Impacts

• Vietnam will demonstrate a semblance of human rights, political and economic reforms to keep donors' support.
• SOE privatisation is unlikely to speed up significantly in 2015.
• Cuba's warming ties with the United States may increase China-Vietnam communist party solidarity.