The impact of hurricanes on a property portfolio: an empirical study based on loss data in Portugal
ISSN: 0307-4358
Article publication date: 13 October 2023
Issue publication date: 21 February 2024
Abstract
Purpose
The simulated scenarios can be used to compute risk premiums per risk class in the portfolio. These can then be used to adjust the policy premiums by accounting for storm risk.
Design/methodology/approach
A complete model to analyse and characterise future losses of the property portfolio of an insurance company due to hurricanes is proposed. The model is calibrated by using the loss data of the Fidelidade insurance company property portfolio resulting from Hurricane Leslie, which hit the centre of continental Portugal in October, 2018.
Findings
Several scenarios are simulated and risk maps are constructed. The risk map of the company depends on its portfolio, especially its exposure, and provides a Hurricane risk management tool for the insurance company.
Originality/value
A statistical model is considered, in which weather data is not required. The authors reconstruct the behaviour of storms through the registered claims and respective losses.
Keywords
Acknowledgements
The authors thank to two anonymous referees and to the editor for the valuable comments and suggestions that helped improve the paper. Alexandra Moura and Carlos Oliveira were partially funded by FCT – Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (Portugal), with national funding through research grants CEMAPRE/REM UIDB/05069/2020 and EXPL/EGE-ECO/0886/2021. The authors thank IPMA for kindly providing Figure 1.
Citation
Hauser, A., Rosa, C., Esteves, R., Bugalho, L., Moura, A. and Oliveira, C. (2024), "The impact of hurricanes on a property portfolio: an empirical study based on loss data in Portugal", Managerial Finance, Vol. 50 No. 3, pp. 634-652. https://doi.org/10.1108/MF-03-2023-0163
Publisher
:Emerald Publishing Limited
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