Assessing the model risk with respect to the interest rate term structure under Solvency II
Abstract
Purpose
Interest rate risk, i.e. the risk of changes in the interest rate term structure, is of high relevance in insurers' risk management. Due to large capital investments in interest rate sensitive assets such as bonds, interest rate risk plays a considerable role for deriving the solvency capital requirement (SCR) in the context of Solvency II. This paper seeks to address these issues.
Design/methodology/approach
In addition to the Solvency II standard model, the author applies the model of Gatzert and Martin for introducing a partial internal model for the market risk of bond exposures. After introducing calibration methods for short rate models, the author quantifies interest rate and credit risk for corporate and government bonds and demonstrates that the type of process can have a considerable impact despite comparable underlying input data.
Findings
The results show that, in general, the SCR for interest rate risk derived from the standard model of Solvency II tends to the SCR achieved by the short rate model from Vasicek, while the application of the Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross model leads to a lower SCR. For low‐rated bonds, the internal models approximate each other and, moreover, show a considerable underestimation of credit risk in the Solvency II model.
Originality/value
The aim of this paper is to assess model risk with focus on bonds in the market risk module of Solvency II regarding the underlying interest rate process and input parameters.
Keywords
Citation
Martin, M. (2013), "Assessing the model risk with respect to the interest rate term structure under Solvency II", Journal of Risk Finance, Vol. 14 No. 3, pp. 200-233. https://doi.org/10.1108/JRF-11-2012-0083
Publisher
:Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Copyright © 2013, Emerald Group Publishing Limited