Geopolitical risk and banking performance: evidence from emerging economies

Abstract

Purpose

This study delves into the critical issue of banks' stability and profitability, which are crucial elements for fostering economic growth and preserving depositor confidence. Specifically, we scrutinize the impact of geopolitical risks on the profitability and solvency of banks operating in emerging economies across the Middle East and Africa.

Design/methodology/approach

Employing a two-step Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) approach, we analyze a comprehensive dataset comprising 125 banks spanning 13 emerging economies in the Middle East and Africa, covering the period from 2003 to 2019.

Findings

Our study reveals a significant sensitivity of Middle Eastern banks to geopolitical risks, wherein effective anticipation or adaptation to these risks positively influences bank performance. Conversely, the impact of geopolitical risk on African banking profitability appears inconclusive and statistically insignificant. These nuanced findings underscore the complex interplay between geopolitical dynamics and financial performance in diverse regional contexts, with implications for policymakers and industry stakeholders.

Practical implications

Our findings underscore the need for nuanced policy responses and risk management strategies tailored to the unique challenges posed by geopolitical dynamics in emerging markets. Furthermore, they highlight the importance of continued research efforts to deepen our understanding of these complex interactions and inform more effective decision-making in the financial sector.

Originality/value

Amidst growing recognition of the importance of geopolitical risks in financial markets, empirical studies exploring their precise impact on bank performance remain scarce. This study fills this gap by offering a pioneering investigation into the influence of geopolitical risks on bank profitability and solvency, using advanced econometric techniques and a substantial, diverse sample of banks in emerging economies across the Middle East and Africa.

Citation

Adel, N. and Naili, M. (2024), "Geopolitical risk and banking performance: evidence from emerging economies", Journal of Risk Finance, Vol. ahead-of-print No. ahead-of-print. https://doi.org/10.1108/JRF-10-2023-0243