Modeling two-dimensional technology diffusion process under dynamic adoption rate

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to develop a parsimonious and innovative model that captures the dynamics of new product diffusion in the recent high-technology markets and thus assist both academicians and practitioners who are eager to understand the diffusion phenomena. Accordingly, this study develops a novel diffusion model to forecast the demand by centering on the dynamic state of the product’s adoption rate. The proposed study also integrates the consumer’s psychological point of view on price change and goodwill of the innovation in the diffusion process.

Design/methodology/approach

In this study, a two-dimensional distribution function has been derived using Cobb–Douglas’s production function to combine the effect of price change and continuation time (goodwill) of the technology in the market. Focused on the realistic scenario of sales growth, the model also assimilates the time-to-time variation in the adoption rate (hazard rate) of the innovation owing to companies changing marketing and pricing strategies. The time-instance upon which the adoption rate alters is termed as change-point.

Findings

For validation purpose, the developed model is fitted on the actual sales and price data set of dynamic random access memory (DRAM) semiconductors, liquid crystal display (LCD) monitors and room air-conditioners using non-linear least squares estimation procedure. The results indicate that the proposed model has better forecasting efficiency than the conventional diffusion models.

Research limitations/implications

The developed model is intrinsically restricted to a single generation diffusion process. However, technological innovations appear in generations. Therefore, this study also yields additional plausible directions for future analysis by extending the diffusion process in a multi-generational environment.

Practical implications

This study aims to assist marketing managers in determining the long-term performance of the technology innovation and examine the influence of fluctuating price on product demand. Besides, it also incorporates the dynamic tendency of adoption rate in modeling the diffusion process of technological innovations. This will support the managers in understanding the practical implications of different marketing and promotional strategies on the adoption rate.

Originality/value

This is the first attempt to study the value-based diffusion model that includes key interactions between goodwill of the innovation, price dynamics and change-point for anticipating the sales behavior of technological products.

Citation

Kapur, P.K., Panwar, S. and Singh, O. (2019), "Modeling two-dimensional technology diffusion process under dynamic adoption rate", Journal of Modelling in Management, Vol. 14 No. 3, pp. 717-737. https://doi.org/10.1108/JM2-06-2018-0088