Price Discovery and Spillover Effect between Currency Futures Market and Spot Market-Comparing Developing Country with Developed Country

Abstract

This study examines the volatility spillover effect and forward pricing effect between futures and spot markets, using the daily data of January 1988~April 2013 and Bounds test, ARDL model, DCC-GARCH model and the new method of spillover index calculation. In particular, the comparison between the developed and emerging markets will shed a light on a difference between the efficiencies of the two groups of markets. Our results show that the volatility spillover effect in the developed market was less in magnitude, compared to that effect in the emerging market. The causal influence from the future market to the spot market was greater in the developed market than in the emerging markets. This indicates that the foreign exchange markets (future and spot both) were much more efficient in the developed markets than in the emerging markets. This also implies very fruitful guides for the foreign exchange intervention policy, including signaling effect, portfolio effects, and direct and indirect intervention effects.

Citation

Xue, X.Q., Park, S.W. and Kim, H.H. (2014), "Price Discovery and Spillover Effect between Currency Futures Market and Spot Market-Comparing Developing Country with Developed Country", Journal of Derivatives and Quantitative Studies: 선물연구, Vol. 22 No. 2, pp. 193-221. https://doi.org/10.1108/JDQS-02-2014-B0002