An attempt of a crystal ball for hotels in a gaming destination, Macao
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to consider the issue of forecasting hotel room rate with data from 2004 onwards and the forecast horizons of 91 observations.
Design/methodology/approach
This study employs a set of time series data (91 observations) on average monthly hotel room rates to generate an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models (ARIMA) forecasting model.
Findings
Through the employment of 74 percent observations, with 26 percent withhold for evaluation checking, six best models are identified from 50 models under study. The final model reports a high level of predictive accuracy and provides useful insights for hoteliers to form business strategies.
Originality/value
This research provides a well-defined model to forecast the room rate of three-star hotels in the city. The research findings provide good ground for strategic management of the industry, in which there is an imbalance between demand and supply of hotel accommodations. In addition, being the first of its kind in one of the largest gaming revenue generation city in the world, this research provides valuable information for further research of its kind in the future.
Keywords
Acknowledgements
© International Tourism Studies Association
Earlier version of this paper was presented at the Second Interdisciplinary Tourism Research Conference, Fethiye, Turkey, 24th-29th April 2012 and published in the conference proceedings. The authors would like to express sincere thanks to all delegates at the conference for their valuable comments and suggestions.
Citation
Lam, C.C.-C. and Lei, C.W.-S. (2015), "An attempt of a crystal ball for hotels in a gaming destination, Macao", International Journal of Tourism Cities, Vol. 1 No. 2, pp. 139-151. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJTC-08-2014-0006
Publisher
:Emerald Group Publishing Limited