Electric supply and demand forecasting using seasonal grey model based on PSO-SVR

Abstract

Purpose

Given the effects of natural and social factors, data on both the supply and demand sides of electricity will produce obvious seasonal fluctuations. The purpose of this article is to propose a new dynamic seasonal grey model based on PSO-SVR to forecast the production and consumption of electric energy.

Design/methodology/approach

In the model design, firstly, the parameters of the SVR are initially optimized by the PSO algorithm for the estimation of the dynamic seasonal operator. Then, the seasonal fluctuations in the electricity demand data are eliminated using the dynamic seasonal operator. After that, the time series after eliminating of the seasonal fluctuations are used as the training set of the DSGM(1, 1) model, and the corresponding fitted, and predicted values are calculated. Finally, the seasonal reduction is performed to obtain the final prediction results.

Findings

This study found that the electricity supply and demand data have obvious seasonal and nonlinear characteristics. The dynamic seasonal grey model based on PSO-SVR performs significantly better than the comparative model for hourly and monthly data as well as for different time durations, indicating that the model is more accurate and robust in seasonal electricity forecasting.

Originality/value

Considering the seasonal and nonlinear fluctuation characteristics of electricity data. In this paper, a dynamic seasonal grey model based on PSO-SVR is established to predict the consumption and production of electric energy.

Citation

Yao, X. and Mao, S. (2023), "Electric supply and demand forecasting using seasonal grey model based on PSO-SVR", Grey Systems: Theory and Application, Vol. 13 No. 1, pp. 141-171. https://doi.org/10.1108/GS-10-2021-0159