The contribution of foresight to improve long-term security planning

Abstract

Purpose

Despite the common focus on studying future events, the study of risk management and foresight have developed as two segmented scientific fields. This study aims to investigate whether current risk management methodology is sufficient for long-term planning against threats from terrorism and other black swan events, and whether perspectives from foresight studies can contribute to more effective long-term security planning.

Design/methodology/approach

This study investigates the planning process of the rebuilding of the Norwegian Government Complex destroyed during a terrorist attack in 2011. The study examines whether security risk managers find current security risk management methodology sufficient for dealing with long-term security threats to the Norwegian Government Complex.

Findings

Current security risk management methodology for long-term security planning is insufficient to capture black swan events. Foresight perspectives could contribute by engaging tools to mitigate the risk of these events. This could lead to more robust security planning.

Originality/value

The main contribution of this paper is to investigate whether perspectives and methodology from foresight studies can improve current security risk management methodology for long-term planning and look for cross-fertilization between foresight and risk studies. A framework for scenario development based on security risk management methodology and foresight methodology is proposed that can help bridge the gap.

Citation

Jore, S.H., Utland, I.-L.F. and Vatnamo, V.H. (2018), "The contribution of foresight to improve long-term security planning", Foresight, Vol. 20 No. 1, pp. 68-83. https://doi.org/10.1108/FS-08-2017-0045