Urbanization and economic growth in China: empirical evidence based on a SIVQR approach

Abstract

Purpose

We seek to quantify the relationship between urbanization and economic growth in China using recent advances in econometric techniques.

Design/methodology/approach

This study adopts a smoothed instrumental variables quantile regression (SIVQR) estimator to obtain consistent estimates of the effects of urbanization on economic growth in China. Our approach accounts for the differential impacts of urbanization across the conditional distribution of economic growth while allowing for an identification strategy that addresses the endogeneity of urbanization. Our main findings reveal that ignoring urbanization endogeneity leads to inconsistent estimates of urbanization effects. Further, we find a positive relationship between urbanization and growth resembling an inverted U-shape. This supports the hypothesis that the beneficial effects of urbanization intensify at initial stages while diminishing beyond a certain threshold, due perhaps to weakening scale economies.

Findings

Our main results indicate that the individual productivity gains brought by urbanization outweigh the negative effects thereof that impede productivity, thus contributing to the economic growth in China. Further, we find that ignoring differential impacts of urbanization underestimates the beneficial effects of urbanization for provinces whose quality of governance is in the vicinity of the center of quality distribution. Ignoring the endogeneity of urbanization generates inconsistent estimates of the elasticity of economic growth with respect to urbanization. Finally, we estimate an inverted U-shape resembling relationship between urbanization and growth.

Research limitations/implications

First, future studies would benefit from incorporating more data as provinces further east on the mainland become more urbanized and urbanization runs its course. Second, controlling the barriers to rural-urban mobility would contribute to the robustness of the estimated relationship between urbanization and growth once such data became available. Unveiling the impact of government-imposed barriers is key to designing optimal policies that help fuel economic growth in the country. Finally, future research could benefit from information on urbanization sources not considered here such as inter-provincial migration, as such data become publicly available.

Practical implications

Quantifying the beneficial effects of urbanization on economic growth can help guide the government in China to further fuel the growth through a set of relevant policy tools that promote urbanization.

Social implications

Rural-urban migration in China lays the groundwork for economic advancement in recipient cities and economies, as it may induce scale economies. This can benefit both the economy at large and the migrants.

Originality/value

The SIVQR estimator accounts for potential heterogeneous effects of urbanization across the entire conditional distribution of growth while allowing for an identification strategy that addresses the endogeneity of urbanization. An additional distinguishing feature of the current study is our use of the most recent novel, provincial-level data obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics of China. Our focus on a single country allows sidestepping issues arising from the inconsistency of the definition of urban across different countries while accounting for intra-country urbanization drivers intrinsic to China, such as natural features and geographic characteristics. Therefore, our approach has the potential to sidestep the bias resulting from the differences in mechanisms behind urbanization-growth relationships across different countries.

Citation

Hovhannisyan, V. and Asci, S. (2024), "Urbanization and economic growth in China: empirical evidence based on a SIVQR approach", China Agricultural Economic Review, Vol. ahead-of-print No. ahead-of-print. https://doi.org/10.1108/CAER-08-2023-0234