Climate change and the impacts on China’s agricultural interregional trade flows
Abstract
Purpose
The impacts of climate change on agricultural production in the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) are significant, and differ across regions and crops. The substantial regional differences will induce changes in agricultural interregional trade pattern. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the climate change impacts on China’s agricultural interregional trade pattern.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper will use the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to assess the impacts of climate change on the PRC’s agricultural interregional trade flows. The CGE model consists of seven Chinese regions and the rest of the world and six commodities.
Findings
The results indicate that northwest, south, central, and northeast PRC will see increases in the outflows of agricultural products in 2030 and 2050. Conversely, outflows from east, north, and southwest PRC will decrease. Agricultural products handling and transportation facilities need to be repositioned to address the changes in agricultural trade flows.
Originality/value
Studies on the impacts of climate change on the PRC’s agriculture have been increasing. To the best of our knowledge, however, no previous studies have assessed the impacts of climate change on the PRC’s agricultural interregional trade flows. This paper aims to fill this gap in the literature.
Keywords
Acknowledgements
JEL Classification — Q54, R11
Helpful comments from participants in various group discussions organized by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) are also fully appreciated. This paper is part of the research work funded by ADB (Project No. 43068).
Citation
Xin, X., Lin, T., Liu, X., Wan, G. and Zhang, Y. (2015), "Climate change and the impacts on China’s agricultural interregional trade flows", China Agricultural Economic Review, Vol. 7 No. 2, pp. 158-166. https://doi.org/10.1108/CAER-06-2014-0065
Publisher
:Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Copyright © 2015, Emerald Group Publishing Limited