Using Bayesian Kriging for spatial smoothing of trends in non-normal yield densities
ISSN: 0002-1466
Article publication date: 12 October 2021
Issue publication date: 3 October 2022
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to estimate crop yield densities considering time trends in the first three moments and spatially varying coefficients.
Design/methodology/approach
Yield density parameters are assumed to be spatially correlated, through a Gaussian spatial process. This study spatially smooth multiple parameters using Bayesian Kriging.
Findings
Assuming that county yields follow skew normal distributions, the location parameter increased faster in the eastern and northwestern counties of Iowa, while the scale increased faster in southern counties and the shape parameter increased more (implying less left skewness) in southwestern counties. Over time, the mean has increased sharply, while the variance and left skewness increased modestly.
Originality/value
Bayesian Kriging can smooth time-varying yield distributions, handle unbalanced panel data and provide estimates when data are missing. Most past models used a two-stage estimation procedure, while our procedure estimates parameters jointly.
Keywords
Acknowledgements
This research received funding from the Oklahoma Agricultural Experiment Station; the National Institute for Agriculture (NIFA) [Hatch project OKL02939]; and the A.J. and Susan Jacques Chair. Some of the computing for this research was performed at the OSU HighPerformance Computing Center at Oklahoma State University supported in part through the National Science Foundation grant OAC–1531128. The authors acknowledge useful comments by Dr Philip Alderman, Dr Jon T. Biermacher, Dr Dayton M. Lambert and participants at the 2018 SCC-76 Conference.
Citation
Niyibizi, B., Brorsen, B.W. and Park, E. (2022), "Using Bayesian Kriging for spatial smoothing of trends in non-normal yield densities", Agricultural Finance Review, Vol. 82 No. 5, pp. 815-827. https://doi.org/10.1108/AFR-04-2021-0042
Publisher
:Emerald Publishing Limited
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