Modelling Choice in a Changing Environment: Assessing the Shock Effects of a New Transport System
Choice Modelling: The State-of-the-art and The State-of-practice
ISBN: 978-1-84950-772-1, eISBN: 978-1-84950-773-8
Publication date: 15 January 2010
Abstract
Discrete choice models based on cross-sectional data have the important limitation of not considering habit and inertia effects and this may be especially significant in changing environments; notwithstanding, most demand models to date have been based on this type of data. To avoid this limitation, we started by building a mode choice panel around a drastically changing environment, the introduction of a radically new public transport system for the conurbation of Santiago de Chile. This paper presents the formulation and estimation of a family of discrete choice models that enables to treat two main elements: (i) the relative values of the modal attributes, as usual, and (ii) the shock resulting from the introduction of this radical new policy. We also analyse the influence of socioeconomic variables in these two forces.
We found that introducing this drastic new policy may even modify the perception of attribute values; in fact, the changes can be different among individuals, as socioeconomic characteristics act as either enhancers or softeners of the shock effects generated by the new policy.
Acknowledgements
Acknowledgements
We wish to thank the funding of the Chilean Fund for Scientific and Technological Research, FONDECYT (Project 1050672) and of the Millennium Institute on Complex Engineering Systems (Project P05-004F). The last version of this paper was written when the first author was a visiting Ph.D. student at the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW-Berlin), financed by the Chilean Council for Scientific and Technological Research (CONICYT) and the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD), and the second author was a visiting scholar at the French National Institute for Transport and Safety Research (INRETS).
Citation
Yáñez, M.F. and de Dios Ortúzar, J. (2010), "Modelling Choice in a Changing Environment: Assessing the Shock Effects of a New Transport System", Hess, S. and Daly, A. (Ed.) Choice Modelling: The State-of-the-art and The State-of-practice, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 445-460. https://doi.org/10.1108/9781849507738-020
Publisher
:Emerald Group Publishing Limited
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