Sensitivity Analysis of the Colombian Tourism Market: Natural National Parks in a Context of Armed Conflict

Abstract

Tourism is sensitive to many factors related to security, such as terrorism and armed conflict. This scenario can be considered for Colombia and its National Natural Parks. The signing of the peace agreement with the revolutionary armed forces (FARC-EP) of Colombia that would end the armed conflict in 2016 offers economic possibilities for the country where tourism represents an important option, especially in natural areas where the government has regained control. This has had an impact on the sustained growth of tourism demand. The objective of this study is to determine the sensitivity of the tourism market in Colombia and natural parks and its relationship with the evolutionary dynamics of tourism, in a context of armed conflict. Variables related to visitors and the armed conflict were associated by autoregressive vectors, Pearson correlation test and Granger causality. A correlation of −0.5474 was found for the accumulated period from 1995 to 2018. It was also determined that the number of victims of the armed conflict is the Granger cause of the number of visitors to natural parks. The study concludes that the sensitivity of tourism in natural parks in Colombia is a consequence of State policy for the partial termination of the internal armed conflict.

Citation

Oliveros-Ocampo, C.A., Chávez, R.M. and Bravo, M.L. (2020), "Sensitivity Analysis of the Colombian Tourism Market: Natural National Parks in a Context of Armed Conflict", Korstanje, M.E. and Seraphin, H. (Ed.) Tourism, Terrorism and Security (Tourism Security-Safety and Post Conflict Destinations), Emerald Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 39-62. https://doi.org/10.1108/978-1-83867-905-720201004