Afghanistan's Regional and Bilateral Free Trade Agreements: An Evaluation of Trade Effects, Diversion and Creation

Abstract

The increased participation of economies in regional and bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) has resulted in welfare effects. This chapter attempts to determine the welfare implications of preferential reductions in tariffs and free-trade zones on Afghan imports by adopting the Magee (2016) framework. This approach separates the consequences of tariff hikes triggered by FTAs from the general equilibrium effects (GEEs) caused by unknown variables impacting the country's imports (historical links, shared language and culture, landlockedness, etc.). This method evaluates whether preferential tariff reductions favouring partner countries would benefit or harm member countries. The results indicate that the magnitude of the effects of trade creation (TC) is significantly higher than those of trade diversion. TC resulting from GEEs unexpectedly surpasses TC resulting from tariff preferences extended to member nations. Afghanistan's FTAs are not harmful but enhance living conditions. This chapter recognises South Asian Free Trade Area’s (SAFTA's) potential for trade expansion by focusing on commitment to regional integration and increasing liberalisation by implementing a more easily upgraded tariff framework and trade facilitation system. The findings are relevant since World Trade Organisation (WTO) members are often sceptical about regional trade agreements (RTAs) or Bilateral Free Trade Agreements (BFTAs) as agents harming well-being.

Citation

Wani, N.U.H. (2024), "Afghanistan's Regional and Bilateral Free Trade Agreements: An Evaluation of Trade Effects, Diversion and Creation", Policy Solutions for Economic Growth in a Developing Country, Emerald Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 155-179. https://doi.org/10.1108/978-1-83753-430-220241008