Trade Potential of Afghanistan With SAARC Region and European Union: A Gravity Model Approach

Abstract

This study investigates the trade potential of Afghanistan with the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) and European Union (EU) by employing an augmented gravity model approach. The model used the latest Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) dataset with the base year 2016, covering data from 2015 to 2021. The results of the study satiate that out of the chosen 15 countries of the EU, the magnitude of Afghanistan's trade potential is high with three EU countries (Germany, France and Spain), whereas in the case of SAARC, Afghanistan's trade potential is the highest with Pakistan, followed by India and Bangladesh. Results show that simple average tariff imposition and partner countries' GDP positively impact Afghanistan's trade value.

In contrast, simple average tariff imposition bilaterally harms the trade volume of the reporting country. Statistically, a 1% tariff rate change decreases Afghanistan's total trade by 0.3%. Moreover, a 1% increase in the GDP of the partner countries will increase Afghanistan's total trade by 0.5%. Furthermore, common language, landlocked and distance significantly impact Afghanistan's total trade. The results suggest that Afghanistan needs to explore the ways and means to improve its trade relations with the countries further and improve its market share. The study proposed that Afghanistan should use trade as an economic development tool to flourish in the region and capture the markets to realise its maximum trade potential. This research recommends that South Asian and EU countries revise the tariff rates and other non-tariff barriers to boost trade and connectivity for a better trade future.

Citation

Wani, N.U.H. (2024), "Trade Potential of Afghanistan With SAARC Region and European Union: A Gravity Model Approach", Policy Solutions for Economic Growth in a Developing Country, Emerald Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 41-57. https://doi.org/10.1108/978-1-83753-430-220241003