Alibaba

, 190

AliExpress

, 48

Animal spirits

, 63, 203

Artificial intelligence (AI)

, 40

Asian Infrastructure and Investment Bank (AIIB)

, 187, 189

Balance of payments (BoP)

, 165–166

Bank failures

, 99–100

Bank for International Settlements (BIS)

, 102

Bank of Japan (BoJ)

, 128

Baoshang Bank

, 98–99

Beggar-thy-neighbour policy

, 126–127

Beijing-based Newsdog

, 49

Beijing’s industrial development policy

, 39

Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)

, 3–4, 6, 54, 81, 170, 181, 199

abide by international norms

, 188–189

ambition scaled back

, 194–196

commercial reality

, 186–187

debt-trap finance

, 192–193

hype about

, 185–186

invisible

, 189–190

invisible global

, 191–192

linkage with US

, 190–191

risks for China

, 193–194

Sino-US disruption

, 183–185

strategic importance for China

, 182–183

suspicion

, 187–188

Big Four State Banks

, 1

Big Three Telecoms companies

, 1

Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS)

, 40–41

ByteDance

, 49

Capital

accumulation

, 117–118

base

, 165–166

broadening

, 117

deepening

, 117

flight scare

, 73–76

Changchun Changsheng Biotechnology

, 36

China

ageing process

, 57

anticorruption war

, 23–24

current account

, 76–78

as demander

, 12–14

devaluation choice

, 130–133

experts

, 73–74

household debt

, 107–108

property market

, 83

relevance to

, 156

strategic importance for

, 182–183

as supplier

, 14

China Foreign Exchange Trade System (CFETS)

, 139

China International Payment Service (CIPS)

, 4

China’s debt risk

, 115

deleveraging

, 115–117

financial deepening conundrum

, 118–120

mortgages

, 120–123

partial debt debate

, 117–118

China’s global disruption

, 1, 17–19

Chinese digital currency

, 1–4

COVID-19 disruption

, 7–8

COVID-19 legacy

, 21–22

crypto-renminbi to challenging US dollar

, 4–7

disruption to investment

, 16

post COVID-19 geopolitical disruption

, 19–21

supply chain shock

, 12–16

tourism

, 8–9

trade disruption

, 9–12

China–US Tech Race

big question

, 45–46

China challenge and limits

, 48–50

core of tech conflict

, 39–40

disruption and opportunity cost

, 50–51

disruption risks

, 46–48

intellectual property theft

, 43–45

‘Made in China’

, 40–41

patents myth

, 42–43

Chinese Communist Party (CCP)

, 182–183

Chinese digital currency

, 1–4

Chinese Dream

, 3–4, 39, 65, 171–172

Chinese emperor shock

China risk

, 37

China’s anticorruption war

, 23–24

Chinese way

, 36–37

growth fall

, 30–31

handicap of market forces

, 25

incentive scheme

, 36

new emperor

, 29–30

no china disruption to luxury demand

, 25–29

power-grabbing

, 31–34

problem with multiple policy goals

, 34–36

Chinese firms

, 49

Chinese foreign projects

, 186

Chinese way

, 36–37

Chinese Yuan in Hong Kong (CNH)

, 168

City commercial banks

, 96–97

Climate change, impact on

, 162–163

Collateral damage

, 159–160

Commodity

, 83

exporters

, 11–12

fear of commodity market

, 82–86

Communist Party

, 24, 35

Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP)

, 40

Contagion, impact from

, 160–161

Content aggregation apps

, 49

Corner solution

, 154

Corruption

, 25, 60

Countercyclical factor (CF)

, 149, 151

COVID-19

awakening wolf warrior

, 198–200

crisis in 2020

, 197

disruption

, 7–8

legacy

, 21–22

Creative destruction

, 30

Cross-country studies

, 113

Crypto-renminbi to challenging US dollar

, 4–7

Cryptocurrency

, 2, 3

Currency internationalisation

, 165–166

Currency war (see also Trade war)

, 125, 149–150

and causes

, 126–128

China’s devaluation choice

, 130–133

devaluation backfire on China

, 135–138

game

, 128–130, 129–130

Japan aggravating

, 139–140

opening window for Renminbi reform

, 140–144

reform

, 144–145

Renminbi reform

, 138–139

risk implications

, 133

Datang

, 41

Debt

, 127–128

debt-to-GDP ratio

, 115–116

debt-trap finance

, 192–193

Debt time bomb

, 89

bank failures

, 99–100

China’s household debt

, 107–108

debt risk

, 104–106

debt vulnerability

, 89–92

dire problem

, 98–99

household debt mystery

, 107

LGD

, 101–102

LGD build-up and risks

, 102–104

policy

, 111–113

risks

, 96–98, 109–111

ticking time bomb

, 93–95

unregulated growth

, 100–101

‘Debt trap’ diplomacy

, 181

Demographic pains

, 56–58

Design patent

, 42

Devaluation

, 127–128

backfire on China

, 135–138

Didi Chuxing (ridesharing service)

, 49

Digital Currency Electronic Payment (DCEP)

, 1, 2

Disruption

, 50–51

to investment

, 16

risks

, 46–48

to stay

, 163

Domestic economic woes

, 126–127

Domestic growth shock

, 90–91

Early retirement

, 60–61

Economic(s)

development

, 55

economics-politics marriage

, 54–56

growth

, 62

Emerging markets (EMs)

, 149, 166

Entity List

, 40–41

Eurasian Economic Union (EEU)

, 185

European dream

, 171

Exchange rate depreciation

, 127–128

Export Administration Regulations (EAR)

, 40–41

External funding shock

, 91–92

Federal Reserve

, 201

Fertility rate of population

, 57–58

Fifth-generation mobile telephone technology (5G mobile telephone technology)

, 40

Financial deepening conundrum

, 118–120

Foreign direct investment (FDI)

, 128, 167

Foreign exchange (FX)

, 128, 149, 165

Foreign firms

, 46

G3 currencies, failure of

, 169–171

Galapagos syndrome

, 41

Game Theory in economics

, 152

Geo-strategic disruption

, 197–198

Global disruption

, 200

central bank ‘put’ and moral hazard

, 200–202

COVID-19 awakening Wolf Warrior

, 198–200

fiscal complication

, 203–204

food for thought

, 204–207

geo-strategic disruption

, 197–198

unintended consequences

, 202–203

Global financial crisis (GFC)

, 70–71, 89, 117–118, 165, 200–201

Global market cycle

capital flight scare

, 73–76

China’s current account

, 76–78

China’s role in

, 69

cyclical impact

, 83

fear of commodity market

, 82–86

implications

, 81–82

secular impact

, 83–86

story of relative changes

, 86–88

structural erosion

, 78–81

things

, 71–72

Gold Reserve Act

, 126

Greenspan put

, 200–201

Gross domestic product (GDP)

, 8–9, 53

growth targets

, 106

Group of Seven countries (G7 countries)

, 21–22

Growth constraints

, 62–65

Hengfeng Bank

, 98

Hollywood

, 157

Household

debt mystery

, 107

debt-service-to-income ratio

, 107–108

sector

, 120–121

Hu kou

, 61

Huawei

, 41, 190–191

Implicit strategic alliance

, 155

‘Impossible Trinity’ paradigm

, 82, 144–145

Incentive

distortion

, 37

problem

, 60–61

scheme

, 36

Information and communication technology (ICT)

, 39

Information technology (IT)

, 189–190

Intellectual property (IP)

, 45

theft

, 43–45

Intellectual property rights (IPR)

, 45–46

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

, 5, 53, 69, 102, 167

Internet of Things

, 192–193

Invention patent

, 42

Iron law of liberalism

, 25

Japanese experience

, 176–178

Jinzhou Bank

, 98

Joint-stock banks

, 96–97

Kuaishou

, 49

Land sales revenues

, 103–104

Lenovo

, 190

Life Cycle Theory framework

, 27

Liquidity trap

, 127

Local government debt (LGD)

, 89, 101–102

build-up and risks

, 102–104

Local government financing vehicles (LGFVs)

, 101–102

Macro Prudential Assessment (MPA)

, 116

‘Made In China 2025’

, 39–41

Marginal propensity to consume (MPC)

, 202–203

Marginal propensity to save (MPS)

, 202–203

Maritime Silk Road

, 182

Market forces, handicap of

, 25

Middle income trap

, 65–67

Million workers

, 61–62

Mortgage(s)

, 120–123

debt

, 118–119

Multi-national companies (MNCs)

, 43–44

Nash equilibrium

, 152–155

Netware

, 190

New emperor

, 29–30

New monetary order

, 168–169

Nominal effective exchange rate (NEER)

, 138

Nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs)

, 94, 100–101, 116

Non–foreign direct investment (Non-FDI)

, 74

Nonperforming loans (NPLs)

, 119

Normalising

, 91

One-off devaluation

, 150–151

Onshore FX market

, 143–144

Opportunity cost

, 50–51

Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)

, 60

Patents myth

, 42–43

Payable-receivable currency mismatch

, 165–166

Peer-to-peer (P2P)

, 107

People’s Bank of China (PBoC)

, 1, 2, 4, 82, 98–100, 116, 130–131, 149, 169

Political openness

, 55

Post COVID-19 geopolitical disruption

, 19–21

Power-grabbing

, 31–34

Prisoner’s dilemma

, 128–129

Production possibility frontier (PPF)

, 62

Public–Private Partnership debt (PPP debt)

, 102

Put option

, 95

Qiushi magazine

, 34–35

Quantitative easing (QE)

, 126, 200–202

Real China growth story

, 67–68

Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)

, 40

Renminbi

, 135

opening window for

, 140–144

reform

, 138–139

Renminbi internationalisation

, 165, 172–174

Chinese Dream

, 171–172

failure of G3 currencies

, 169–171

Japanese experience

, 176–178

Japanese way

, 178–179

motives

, 165–167

new monetary order

, 168–169

policy priority

, 179–180

portfolio perspective

, 167–168

speculative demand

, 174–175

stuck in first gear

, 175–176

Replacement rate

, 57–58

Risks

, 96–98, 109–111

for China

, 193–194

implications

, 133

Rural commercial banks

, 96–97

Science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM)

, 41

Shadow banks

, 116

Shock

, 56

Silk Road Economic Belt

, 182

Sino-US

disruption

, 183–185

relationship

, 20

trade war

, 35, 47, 147–148

Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT)

, 4–5

Special Drawing Rights (SDR)

, 5, 170

Special purpose vehicles (SPVs)

, 101–102

Sri Lanka’s Mattala Rajapaksa International Airport

, 193

Standardising

, 91

State-owned-enterprises (SOE)

, 41, 93–94

Sterilisation in macroeconomics

, 131

Stock Connect scheme

, 5

Structural erosion

, 78–81

Supply chain shock

, 12–16

changing dynamics

, 14–16

China as demander

, 12–14

China as supplier

, 14

Tail risk

, 133

Take Apple Inc.

, 158

Tech conflict, core of

, 39–40

Tech decoupling

, 39

Technology companies

, 158

Tencent

, 190

Thucydides

thesis

, 198

trap

, 197

Tik Tok

, 49

Total factor productivity (TFP)

, 65

Tourism

, 8–9

Trade disruption

, 9–12

Trade war (see also Currency war)

to cold war to global disruption

, 162

collateral damage

, 159–160

corner solution

, 154

currency war

, 149–150

damage on United States

, 156–158

disruption to stay

, 163

global imbalance

, 147–149

growth contribution of China’s GDP components

, 148

impact from contagion

, 160–161

impact on climate change

, 162–163

no proof of devaluation

, 150–152

relevance to China

, 156

Trump disruption

, 152–154

Trump’s optimal strategy

, 155–156

Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)

, 40

Transparency International Corruption Index

, 33

Trump disruption

, 152–154

Nash equilibrium

, 152–153

Trump’s optimal strategy

, 155–156

United Nations Population Division (UNPD)

, 57

United States, damage on

, 156–158

Unproductive credit in China

, 121–122

US ‘Silk Road’ project

, 184–185

US dollar

, 166

US dollar–bloc countries

, 138

USD4 billion Ituango Dam in Colombia

, 193–194

Utility model patent

, 42

Venezuela

, 193

Wealth management products (WMPs)

, 116

‘Will-they-or-won’t-they’ policy

, 152

Wolf Warrior

, 199–200

World Bank

, 167

World Trade Organisation

, 167

Z-score

, 91, 92

Zombie companies

, 95

ZTE

, 41, 190–191