Prelims

Half Title Page

Artificial Intelligence and Global Security

Title Page

Artificial Intelligence and Global Security: Future Trends, Threats and Considerations

Edited by

Yvonne R. Masakowski

US Naval War College, USA

United Kingdom – North America – Japan – India – Malaysia – China

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Emerald Publishing Limited

Howard House, Wagon Lane, Bingley BD16 1WA, UK

First edition 2020

Copyright © 2020 Emerald Publishing Limited

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Disclaimer

The views and material presented in this book are the sole responsibility of the authors/editor and do not reflect the views or the official positions of the US Naval War College, The US Department of the Navy. The US Department of Defense (DoD) or other agencies of the United States Government.

This book is presented solely for educational and informational purposes. Although the authors and publisher have made every effort to ensure that the information in this book was correct at press time, the authors and publisher do not assume and hereby disclaim any liability to any party for any loss, damage, or disruption caused by errors or omissions, whether such errors of omission result from negligence, accident, or any other cause. The authors and publisher are not offering it as legal, accounting, or other professional services advice.

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ISBN: 978-1-78973-812-4 (Print)

ISBN: 978-1-78973-811-7 (Online)

ISBN: 978-1-78973-813-1 (Epub)

Dedication

This book is dedicated to all military personnel who place their lives on the line to preserve our freedoms. I would like to thank my family and US Naval War College friends and colleagues, especially Dr. Timothy J. Demy and Dr. William F. Bundy for their encouragement and support. Special thanks to those military students whom I had the privilege to teach and mentor during my tenure as a Professor at the US Naval War College. Special appreciation to my students from the Ethics and Emerging Military Technologies (EEMT) graduate certificate program for many hours of exciting and inspirational discussion on Artificial Intelligence and future warfare. These Officers are the military's brightest officers selected as students at the Naval War College. These officers are our nation's future military leaders.

If you want one year of prosperity, grow grain.

If you want ten years of prosperity, grow trees.

If you want one hundred years of prosperity, grow leaders.

Chinese Proverb

About the Editor

Yvonne R. Masakowski, PhD, MPhil, MA, has a distinguished career in Psychology and Human Factors spanning over 25 years. She was recently appointed as a Research Fellow by the US Naval War College following her retirement as an Associate Professor of Strategic Leadership and Leader Development in the College of Leadership and Ethics at the US Naval War College. At the Naval War College, Dr. Masakowski focused on the advancement of leader development for the US Navy and the impact of advanced AI technologies on military affairs. Dr. Masakowski currently serves as the US Chair of a NATO panel on Leader Development for NATO Multinational Military Operations (NATO HFM RTG 286). She also serves as a dissertation thesis mentor on Artificial Intelligence in the Ethics and Emerging Military Technology (EEMT) graduate certificate program at the US Naval War College. Prior appointments included serving as an Associate Director for Human Factors, Office of Naval Research Global office in London, UK, and as the CNO Science Advisor to the Strategic Studies Group (CNO SSG).

Dr. Masakowski earned her Doctorate of Philosophy in Psychology and Master's Degree in Philosophy at The City University of New York. She received a Master's Degree in Psychology (Psycholinguistics) from the University of Connecticut and her Bachelor of Arts in Experimental Psychology from Rutgers University. She earned a diploma from the MIT Seminar XXI program in Foreign Policy and National Security. She has also attended Yale University where she studied biomedical ethics. She has taught leadership, ethics, cross-cultural competence, and the humanities to graduate students. She has also provided executive leader development to US Navy Admirals and US Navy Attorneys. Her research interests include Artificial Intelligence, decision-making, autonomous systems, leader development, cross-cultural competence, and the Humanities. Dr. Masakowski is the author of numerous publications, articles, as well as book chapters. She has edited a book on Decision Making in Complex Environments, and has written the following book chapters: The Impact of Synthetic Virtual Environments on Combat System Design and Operator Performance in Computing with Instinct; Cultural Competence and Leadership in Multinational Military Operations in Military Psychology from an International Perspective; The Dynamics of NATO Multinational Military Operations Inclusive Leadership Practice in Global and Culturally Diverse Leaders and Leadership; and Leaders and Ethical Leadership in Military and Leadership Development.

Dr. Masakowski's leadership and results-oriented philosophy have been recognized nationally and internationally. She has recently been awarded the US Department of Defense Superior Civilian Service Award (2019) and the Lifetime Achievement Award by the Albert Nelson Marquis Lifetime Achievement Award from the Marquis Who's Who Publications Board. Dr. Masakowski has also been recognized by the Czech Republic and awarded their nation's highest military Medal of Honor, The Cross of Merit . She has also been the recipient of awards from France and Poland for her efforts in advancing Science and Technology for military applications.

About the Contributors

Keith A. Abney, MA, is senior lecturer in the Philosophy Department and Research Fellow of the Ethics & Emerging Sciences Group at California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo. His areas of expertise include many aspects of emerging technology ethics and bioethics, especially issues in space ethics and bioethics, robotics, AI and cyberethics, autonomous vehicles, human enhancements, and military technologies. He is a co-editor of Robot Ethics (MIT Press) and Robot Ethics 2.0 (OUP) as well as author/contributor to numerous other books, journal articles, and funded reports.

James Canton, PhD, is a global futurist, social scientist, serial entrepreneur, and advisor to corporations and governments. For over 30 years he has been forecasting global trends, risks, and game changing innovations.

He is the CEO of the Institute for Global Futures, the Institute for Global Futures, a leading think tank that he founded in 1990. He has advised three White House Adminstrations and over 100 companies including the US Department of Defence (DoD), National Science Foundation and MIT's Media Lab, Europe on future trends.

Previously, he worked at Apple, and was a US policy advisor, investment banker, and founder of five tech companies. He is the author of Future Smart, The Extreme Future, and Technofutures.

William D. Casebeer, PhD, MA, is Senior Director of Human-Machine Systems at Scientific Systems Company, Inc. Bill was the Director of the Innovation Lab at Beyond Conflict, and was the Senior Research Area Manager in Human Systems and Autonomy for Lockheed Martin's Advanced Technology Laboratories, where he led technology development programs to boost the ability of humans and autonomous systems to work together. Bill served as a Program Manager at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency from 2010–2014 in the Defense Sciences Office and in the Biological Technologies Office. He retired from active Air Force duty as a Lieutenant Colonel and intelligence analyst in August 2011 and is a 1991 graduate of the USAF Academy.

Thomas C. Choinski, PhD, Naval Undersea Warfare Center, has over 40 years of experience encompassing innovation, management, and engineering that has led to an interdisciplinary approach for technological innovation. Tom has published or presented more than 70 papers in journals or through symposia on topics including innovation, autonomy, unmanned systems, wargaming, digital signal processing, and microwave design. He holds graduate degrees in business and engineering. Dr. Choinski completed a PhD in humanities (concentration in technology, science, and society), as well as a fellowship through the MIT Seminar XXI Program in National Security Studies.

Timothy J. Demy, PhD, ThD, ThM, MSt, MA, is Professor of Military Ethics at the US Naval War College, Newport, RI. Previously, he served for 27 years as an officer in the US Navy. He earned the ThM and ThD from Dallas Theological Seminary, and the PhD from Salve Regina University. Additionally, among other degrees, he earned the MA from the Naval War College and the MSt from the University of Cambridge. He is the author and editor of numerous articles, books, and encyclopedias on a variety of historical, ethical, and theological subjects.

James Giordano, PhD, is Professor in the Departments of Neurology and Biochemistry, Chief of the Neuroethics Studies Program, Chair of the Subprogram in Military Medical Ethics, and Co-director of the O'Neill-Pellegrino Program in Brain Sciences and Global Law and Policy at Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington, DC.

He currently chairs the Neuroethics Subprogram of the IEEE Brain Initiative; is Research Fellow in Biosecurity, Technology, and Ethics at the US Naval War College; Advisory Fellow of the Defense Operations Cognitive Science section, SMA Branch, Joint Staff, Pentagon; Bioethicist for the Defense Medical Ethics Committee; and is senior appointed member of the Neuroethics, Legal and Social Issues Advisory Panel of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). The author of over 300 papers, 7 books, 21 book chapters, and 20 government white papers on brain science, national defense and ethics, in recognition of his achievements he was elected to the European Academy of Science and Arts, and named an Overseas Fellow of the Royal Society of Medicine (UK).

Casey Thomas Hart, PhD, is an Ontologist at Cycorp, where he teaches AI what it needs to know to reason about the world. He earned his doctorate in philosophy from the University of Wisconsin-Madison, where he specialized in formal epistemology and the philosophy of science. He lives in Austin, TX. He is inspired by his family: his tireless and wonderful wife Nicole and their two adorable daughters, Juliette and Elizabeth.

Pauline Shanks Kaurin, PhD, is a Professor of Military Ethics at the US Naval War College, Newport, RI. She earned her doctorate in Philosophy at Temple University and is a specialist in military ethics and Just War theory, the philosophy of law and applied ethics. Recent publications include: When Less is not More: Expanding the Combatant/Non-Combatant Distinction; With Fear and Trembling: A Qualified Defense of Non-Lethal Weapons and Achilles Goes Asymmetrical: The Warrior, Military Ethics and Contemporary Warfare (Routledge 2014). She served as a Featured Contributor for The Strategy Bridge. Her new book on Obedience will be published by US Naval Institute Press in Spring 2020. She has also published with Clear Defense, The Wavell Room, Newsweek and Just Security.

Gina Granados Palmer, MLA, is a faculty member at the US Naval War College, Newport, RI. Ms. Palmer received a Master of Liberal Arts degree in International Relations from Harvard University's Division of Continuing Education and a BS in Mechanical Engineering from California Polytechnic State University, CA. She is currently completing her doctoral dissertation on literary and visual representations of war termination in the Pacific Theater at the end of World War II. She is focusing her doctoral research on leadership, ethics, technology, war and the balance between diplomacy and defense at Salve Regina University, Newport, RI.

James Peltz, PhD, is a program manager with the US Government. He is also a graduate of the US Naval War College. He has a decade of experience managing government research portfolios in the field of nuclear science, nuclear energy, and nuclear non-proliferation. He has specific experience and scientific expertise in predictive best estimate analysis of engineering systems to include model verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification. James has published several refereed articles and has given several invited presentations on these topics to domestic and international audiences.

Imre Porkoláb, PhD, earned his post-graduate degrees at military and civil universities in Hungary and the United States, including Harvard and Stanford. He is a highly decorated military professional with operational tours in Iraq and Afghanistan. He has also played a crucial role in the development of the Hungarian Special Operational Forces (SOF) capabilities. From 2011 he served in the US, at the NATO Allied Command Transformation, as Supreme Allied Commander Transformation (SACT) Representative to the Pentagon. Since 2018, he has been directing the transformation work on the area of the HDF's innovation, and building the national defence industrial base.

He is an expert in guerrilla and counterterrorism warfare, and his research areas include unconventional leadership, change management in a VUCA environment, innovative methods of organizational transformation, and the applicability thereof in the business world. He is an accomplished international speaker, and writer. His first book titled Szolgálj, hogy vezethess! was published in 2016; his second book, A stratégia művészete, came out in 2019.

John R. Shook, PhD, teaches philosophy at Bowie State University in Maryland, and Georgetown University in Washington DC. He also teaches research ethics and science education for the University at Buffalo's online Science and the Public EdM program. He has been a visiting fellow at the Institute for Philosophy and Public Policy at George Mason University in Virginia, and the Center for Neurotechnology Studies of the Potomac Institute for Public Policy in Virginia. At Georgetown University, he works with James Giordano of the Pellegrino Center for Clinical Bioethics. Shook's research encompasses philosophy of science, pragmatism, philosophical psychology, neurophilosophy, social neuroscience, moral psychology, neuroethics, and science-religion dialogue. He co-edited Neuroscience, Neurophilosophy, and Pragmatism (2014), and American Philosophy and the Brain: Pragmatist Neurophilosophy, Old and New (2014). His articles have appeared in Cortex, Neuroethics, AJOB-Neuroscience, Cambridge Quarterly of Health Care Ethics, Philosophy, Ethics, and Humanities in Medicine, and Journal of Cognition and Neuroethics.

Tibor Solymosi, PhD, teaches philosophy at Westminster College in New Wilmington, Pennsylvania. He has previously taught at Allegheny College, Bowie State University, Mercyhurst University, and Case Western Reserve University. His research focuses on the consequences of the sciences of life and mind on our self-conception as conscious, free, and morally responsible selves. He is co-editor of Pragmatist Neurophilosophy (Bloomsbury), and Neuroscience, Neurophilosophy and Pragmatism (Palgrave Macmillan). He is currently working on the intersection of neuroscience and democratic culture, specifically regarding the effects of social media, digital devices, big data, and artificial intelligence.

Anita C. Street, MS, is a Technical Advisor with the US Government. She has 30 years experience working in the area of strategic foresight, environmental science, emerging technologies, and national security. She has edited and co-authored a number of publications on nanotechnology and clean water applications, Life Cycle Analysis of emerging technologies, peak phosphorus, and the influence of science fiction on research and development of converging technologies.

List of Contributors

Preface

All Warfare is Based on Deception

–Sun Tzu.

The arms race is on and Artificial Intelligence (AI) is the fast track for twenty-first century global dominance. Nations view AI technologies as a force enabler and the key to achieving global dominance. During the twenty-first century, AI technologies will control information, people, commerce and future warfare. It is our responsibility to be at the helm and shape our future as AI joins the fight.

(Masakowski, 2019)

This book had its origins in hours of discussion between the author and her students, colleagues, fellow scientists, and engineers on the important role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in shaping the future of society and warfare. The topic of Artificial Intelligence is one that lends itself to lively debate as the technology itself has advanced exponentially, often times being overpromised and underdelivered. Indeed, there is a wide array of perspectives on this topic as some view AI as the great problem solver, while others as a threat to humanity itself. I contend that there is a bit of truth in both perspectives. We are facing an unknown entity in many ways. Foremost among these issues is whether AI technologies will achieve total self-awareness and become a serious threat to humanity. For the moment, we can rest assured that there will be a human-in-the-loop and human-on-the-loop to ensure that AI systems do not present dangers to the human (Porat, Oran-Gilad, Rottem-Hovev, & Silbiger, 2016). However, there are serious considerations regarding the ethical, theological, and moral challenges these technologies present to us during times of war. War itself is debated within the context of Just War theories. So, for this purpose, how will AI technologies influence the rules of engagement and Just War practices of warfare in the future? Should AI systems be designed with ethical rules and algorithms that will constrain its actions and serve as its conscience in future conflicts?

In the course of researching and writing this book, I've discussed these topics with my colleagues and invited them to contribute their expertise and knowledge, as well as speculative theories for future warfare in light of advances in AI technologies. We also need to consider the impact of advanced AI systems fighting against AI systems in the future? How will AI technologies reset the rules of engagement for future warfare? What are the potential ethical and moral implications of such a future war?

Futurizing warfare is a risky business as we can wargame future concepts however these are often limited by our unique personal experience and knowledge. We need to step out of our comfort zone and imagine a world without ethical and moral boundaries for that is what our adversaries will do. They will not be contained or constrained by such limitations.

This book will address questions related to the influence and impact of Artificial Intelligence technologies being applied across a wide array of crises and domains as well as address the ethical and moral conflicts of war. Among the questions these chapters will explore are: What are the implications of AI for the individual's personal freedom, identity, and privacy rights? What are the consequences of AI advances related to national and global security? Is there a need to develop an AI conscience? What are the potential impacts of AI to AI system warfare? Each chapter will examine the perspectives and consequences for the integration of AI in our daily lives, as well as its influence on society and war. There are considerable consequences for underestimating the potential impacts of AI in warfare. Sun Tzu would have fully appreciated the potential benefits of AI as a tool of deception, as he stated, “The supreme Art of War is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”

We anticipate that AI will continue to evolve and expand its reach on a global scale. Whatever its course, advances in AI will present challenges and risks for its implementation in daily life, as well as in times of war. It is left to the human to chart a course that will help mankind navigate unknown territory and shape the future world in which we want to live.

Acknowledgments

My long-standing interest in research and the topics of neuroscience, brain development, and cognitive psychology has afforded me the opportunity to work with a number of outstanding individuals across civilian and military communities. I believe that our thinking is a tapestry woven throughout the course of our lives shaped by our education, experience, knowledge, and insights gained through research and dialogue with others. I am indebted to those friends, colleagues, mentors, and students with whom I have engaged and learned from over the years. Indeed, they are far too numerous to mention here. However, I would like to share the following acknowledgments with you regarding those who contributed to making this book a reality.

Please allow me to acknowledge the contributions of my contributing authors for sharing their knowledge, expertise, and perspectives on Artificial Intelligence. Special thanks to Dr. Timothy Demy for his encouragement in my research, teaching, and writing. Special acknowledgment to my friend and colleague, Dr. William Bundy who recently passed away. Dr. Bundy was a champion for all of us who reached out to the future to anticipate how technology would change our lives and warfare. He was a friend, teacher, and mentor to many students and colleagues as he led the Gravely Group at the US Naval War College.

I am especially grateful to my US Naval War College, Ethics and Emerging Military Technology (EEMT) graduate students for the hours spent discussing, brainstorming, speculating, and imagining a future with ubiquitous Artificial Intelligence shaping and controlling our future lives and warfare.

Special thanks to my editors at Emerald Publishing for their patience, support, and continuous encouragement. This book is evidence of their commitment to excellence in their work and publishing.