Index
Real Time Strategy: When Strategic Foresight Meets Artificial Intelligence
ISBN: 978-1-78756-812-9, eISBN: 978-1-78756-811-2
Publication date: 29 April 2020
This content is currently only available as a PDF
Citation
Schühly, A., Becker, F. and Klein, F. (2020), "Index", Real Time Strategy: When Strategic Foresight Meets Artificial Intelligence, Emerald Publishing Limited, Leeds, pp. 195-198. https://doi.org/10.1108/978-1-78756-811-220201010
Publisher
:Emerald Publishing Limited
Copyright © 2020 Emerald Publishing Limited
INDEX
Adaptiveness (see also Complexity)
, 133–140, 143–145, 161, 163
wall
, 133
Agents
, 6
Aging
, 7
Agrochemicals in Asia
, 83
Airbus A400M
, 38
Amazon
, 92, 105
Apple
, 90, 92–93, 99–100, 121–122
1973 Arab–Israeli War (see Yom Kippur War)
Artificial intelligence (AI)
, 2, 18, 28, 74, 114, 145, 153, 165
advantages
, 148
AI-generated insights
, 103–105
augmenting modelling stage
, 156–159
augmenting monitoring stage
, 159–163
augmenting research stage
, 154–156
excuse
, 145
general
, 148
scenario planning in combination with
, 144–145
AT&T
, 34–35, 44
Automation
, 18
‘Automotive’
, 155–156
Autonomous driving
, 145
Availability bias
, 49
Battery technologies
, 9
BCG Matrix
, 28
Bias
availability
, 49
cognitive
, 10–11
Big bang problems
, 47–48
Big Data
, 2, 105, 170, 172
‘Black box’ of Game Theory
, 144
Black swans
, 79–80
Blockbuster
, 7–8, 14
Brainstorm
, 144, 154
Building Narratives
, 89
California Institute of Technology
, 39
Captive banks
, 8–9
real competition for
, 9
Carmakers
, 10
Characters
, 89–90
Chernobyl nuclear disaster
, 79
Chicago Times
, 35
Choice Cascade
, 95–96
Clarity (see also Relevance; Validity)
, 13–17
Classical agent-principal dilemma
, 6
Classical crowdsourcing
, 104
Climate change
, 2, 4, 73, 132, 175
Cognitive bias
, 10–11
Complex adaptive systems
, 147–148, 154, 159, 180–182
Complex quantitative models
, 33
Complex simulation models
, 36
Complexity (see also Adaptiveness)
, 124–133, 138, 140–141, 143–145, 161, 163
management
, 17–19
wall
, 126
Complicatedness
, 127–128, 136
Conflict
, 90
Consultants
, 12
Corporations
, 11
Creativity
, 19–20, 31, 48–49, 59, 77, 120
Crisis-response-scenario
, 91
Critical uncertainties
, 59, 76–83, 85, 156–158
Crowdsourcing
, 103–105
Cutting-edge technology
, 97–100
Decision analysis
, 32
Decision makers
, 2–3, 6–7, 11–12, 16–17, 20, 23, 77–78
ideal
, 13
liability of
, 12
Decision making
processes
, 6, 11
quality
, 13
Deep Blue computer
, 146
DeepL
, 146
Desirable future
, 37
Dieselgate scandal
, 9–10
Differentiator
, 117, 119, 161
Digital dementia
, 79
Digital media
, 106–107
Digital photography
, 77
Digital Strategy
, 113
Digitalisation
, 50, 107, 135, 147
Digitalising
, 7
Driving forces
, 72–76, 154–156
Dynamic scenario modelling
, 142–143
Dynamic strategic thinking
, 7–12
Dynamic strategy, dimensions of
, 12–13
clarity
, 13–17
relevance
, 19–21
validity
, 17–19
Economic drivers
, 73
Enemies
adaptiveness
, 133–140
complexity
, 124–133
Environmental drivers
, 73
Environmental onion
, 54
Epistemology
, 4
European Bank
, 71
Evolutionary change
, 92
External circle
, 55
Facebook
, 92
Fast-moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) Company
, 72
Fiction to science to strategy
, 145–148
Financial engineering
, 116
Flight of Flamingos scenario
, 51
Focal question
, 68–72, 154, 156–158, 161–162
Forecast methods
, 32
Forecasting future
, 31–36
Future
desirable
, 37
predicting or forecasting
, 31–36
‘Future-now’ thinking
, 38
Futurism
, 31
Game Theory
, 139–140, 143–144, 154
Garbage in, garbage out issue
, 76
General Electric (GE)
, 42, 116
German Mittelstand
, 53
Global Business Network (GBN)
, 26, 37, 43–44, 58–59, 67–68
Globalisation
, 1–2
Gnoseology
, 4
Go (Japanese board game)
, 146
Gold standard of corporate scenario generation
, 67
Google
, 92
Google Translate
, 146
Group Planning department
, 41
Gulf Stream
, 88
Healthcare Company
, 72
HMD
, 100
Holistic view
, 56
Horizon Planning initiative
, 40
Horizon year
, 70
Human intuition
, 57–58
Humanity
, 3
Humankind
, 1–4
Hyper-connectivity
, 1–2
IBM
, 39, 44, 93, 146
Icarus scenario
, 51
‘Imitation Game, The’
, 146
Impact-uncertainty grid
, 81
Indiana Jones
, 12–13
Industry scenarios
, 71, 85
Infinite-possibility archetype
, 92–93
Innovation
, 36, 49–50, 88, 92, 94, 179
iPhone (Apple)
, 99–100, 122
iPod
, 27
iStockPhoto
, 104
Kodak
, 7–8, 14, 77, 98, 135
KPIs
, 73, 111–112, 139
Lame Duck scenario
, 51
Leaders
, 8
Logic
, 83
Long view
, 13–17, 53
Longitude Prize
, 104
Machine learning
, 32, 146–147, 172
Machine objectivity
, 57–58
Macro environment drivers
, 73
Managers
, 6
Markets
, 7, 10
Med-Tech
, 74, 84, 86
Media
, 123
Media company
, 82–83
Medium circle
, 55
Mental model
, 49, 127–129, 132–133, 135–137, 154, 159, 177, 179–180
‘Middle of the road scenario’
, 59
Modern scenario planning
, 37
Monitor Group
, 62n7
Moore’s law
, 32, 62n18
Motivation
, 48, 117, 120, 133, 140–141
Natural Language Processing
, 104
Netflix
, 8, 24, 27
Neural networks
, 147
Nokia
, 7–8, 99–100
Non-scenario-related forecasting techniques
, 36
Non-strategic goals
, 117
October War (see Yom Kippur War)
‘Official’ future
, 39
Oracle of Delphi
, 31
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)
, 41
Ostrich scenario
, 50
Outside-in thinking
, 28, 44, 54–55, 69, 73
Paralysis
, 94
issue
, 78–79
Pendulum
, 65n57
Perpetual transition
, 93
Personas
, 89–90
Plausibility
, 27–28, 55–56, 108
Plausible futures
, 30, 33, 49, 60
Playing field
, 4, 14–15, 23, 84, 115, 122, 126
Political drivers
, 73
Porter’s five forces
, 28, 116
Possible futures
, 26, 33, 49
Pragmatism
, 19–20
Predicting future
, 31–36
Preferable futures
, 33
‘Principals’
, 6
Probabilistic modified trend scenario
, 67
Probable futures
, 33
Prognosis
, 141–143
Project by project basis
, 40
R&D strategy for global med-tech player
, 84
Ramadan War (see Yom Kippur War)
RAND Corporation
, 37–39, 67
‘Rank and yank’ policies
, 116
Real-time scenario modeling (see also Traditional scenario planning process)
, 153
AI augmenting modelling stage
, 156–159
AI augmenting monitoring stage
, 159–163
AI augmenting research stage
, 154–156
Real-time update
, 160
Relevance (see also Clarity; Validity)
, 13, 19–21
Renaissance scholar
, 12–13
Research and Development Corporation (RAND Corporation)
, 25, 37–39, 67
Revolutionary plots
, 92
Risk
, 54
Saint
, 12–13
Samsung
, 90, 122
Scenario planning (see also Traditional scenario planning process)
, 25–27, 28–30, 37–6, 79
application
, 46–52
in combination with AI
, 144
guidelines for designing scenarios
, 52–61
key principle
, 32
timeline
, 37
usage of management tools
, 46
Scenario process (see also Real-time scenario modeling)
, 103
AI-generated insights
, 103–105
crowdsourcing
, 103–105
democratising
, 105–106
new ways of telling stories
, 106–108
speeding up
, 106
Scenarios
, 23–31, 106
differing from predicting or forecasting future
, 31–36
framework
, 83–84, 158
health
, 161–163
modelling
, 144
monitoring
, 97–100, 159–161
narratives
, 84–93, 158–159
number of
, 58–59
process
, 68
team
, 57–59
thinking
, 14, 21, 33, 36, 39, 55, 67, 75–76, 141–142
Scenarios 5.0
, 103
Second spring
, 147
Self-learning approach
, 146
Shareholders
, 112, 123–124, 172, 177
Shell
, 41–43, 67
approach
, 42
legacy
, 44
Slides
, 107
Social drivers
, 73
Societies
, 7
Sound strategy process
, 97
Stakeholders
, 11, 16, 20, 31, 34, 49–50, 55–56, 47, 69, 75–76, 87, 99, 107–108, 111, 114, 117, 120–121, 139, 171–172
Stanford Research Institute
, 37, 39
Static strategic thinking
, 11–12
Static strategy, trap of
, 5–7
STEEP framework
, 73–74
Stochastic Neural Analog Reinforcement Computer
, 146
Strategic Analytics
, 113
Strategic goals
, 114, 116–118, 132, 137, 153–154, 163
Strategic objective
, 111, 115, 118, 154, 158
Strategic thinking
, 1–2, 116, 137, 165
dynamic
, 7–12
Strategy
, 8, 13–15, 17, 113
advisors
, 123–124
consultants
, 138
fiction to science to
, 145–148
narratives valid in
, 171–172
Structural uncertainties
, 79
Superiority
, 153
Superpower for strategists
, 111
attempts to protect against enemies
, 139–143
from fiction to science to strategy
, 145–148
original strength of strategists
, 116–124
secret of strategic success–and failure
, 114–116
against strongest enemies
, 143–145
true enemies
, 124–138
System Dynamics
, 139–144
Systems thinking
, 88
Technological drivers
, 73
Tectonic-change-plot
, 92
Tesla Roadster
, 118, 121
Time
, 117–119
horizon
, 15, 70
Traditional ‘rule-based’ programming
, 146
Traditional scenario planning process (see also Scenario planning; Real-time scenario modeling)
critical uncertainties
, 76–83
driving forces
, 72–76
focal question
, 68–72
implications and options
, 93–97
monitoring scenarios with cutting-edge technology
, 97–100
scenario framework
, 83–84
scenario narratives
, 84–93
‘Tulip Mania’
, 115
Turbulence
, 26
Turing Test (see ‘Imitation Game, The’)
Uncertainty
, 3, 10, 15, 25–26, 75, 83
critical
, 76–83, 85, 156–158
dimensions of dynamic strategy
, 12–21
dynamic strategic thinking
, 7–12
embracing
, 17–19
secondary
, 82
structural
, 79
trap of static strategy
, 5–7
Unified Planning Machinery system
, 40
Unknowingness
, 80
US Air Force and Douglas Aircraft technology
, 38
Validity (see also Clarity; Relevance)
, 13, 17–19
Volatility
, 80
Wall Street company
, 76
Wall Street Journal
, 35
What-if analyses
, 37
What-if principle
, 47, 86
Wind tunneling
, 160
analogy
, 96
Winners-and-losers plot
, 90
Yellow journalism
, 89
Yom Kippur War
, 41
Zoom-in approach
, 57
Zoom-out approach
, 57