Development of fuzzy cognitive map (FCM)‐based scenarios for wind energy
International Journal of Energy Sector Management
ISSN: 1750-6220
Article publication date: 22 November 2011
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to explore a very new approach of creating scenarios with fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM); specifically to create scenarios for wind energy deployment.
Design/methodology/approach
In this paper a small exercise is conducted to illustrate the usefulness of FCM‐based scenarios.
Findings
Scenario‐based planning is often used in technology management and scenarios are generated to cater for uncertainty and facilitate development of responsive and robust strategic plans. Scenario analysis helps to identify different alternatives of the future state of technologies, needs, policies and environment. Scenario planning helps to overcome thinking limitations by presenting multiple futures. FCMs are based on causal cognitive maps and combine the benefits of both qualitative and quantitative analysis. Domain knowledge of multiple experts can be integrated into an FCM to present collective knowledge base.
Originality/value
This is a conceptual paper exploring use of fuzzy cognitive maps to create scenarios for wind energy deployment. The paper provides scenarios and a way to integrate them into technology roadmaps.
Keywords
Citation
Amer, M., Jetter, A. and Daim, T. (2011), "Development of fuzzy cognitive map (FCM)‐based scenarios for wind energy", International Journal of Energy Sector Management, Vol. 5 No. 4, pp. 564-584. https://doi.org/10.1108/17506221111186378
Publisher
:Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Copyright © 2011, Emerald Group Publishing Limited