Research on emerging technology selection and assessment by technology foresight and fuzzy consistent matrix

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to propose a new hybrid approach based on technology foresight and a fuzzy consistent matrix to select and assess emerging technologies.

Design/methodology/approach

Through introducing technology foresight into emerging technology selection and assessment, an industrialization potential assessment indexes system of emerging technologies is constructed, and general procedures to assess the industrialization potential of emerging technologies based on technology foresight and a fuzzy consistent matrix are presented.

Findings

In this paper, assessment of the industrialization potential of nine different emerging technologies is provided to illustrate the application of the method. These results show that technology 1 has the best performance on industrialization potential, and technology 2 has better performance on the industrialization potential.

Practical implications

This paper is of interest for emerging technology selection and assessment practitioners and policymakers at the industrial and government levels.

Originality/value

This paper proposes a new hybrid approach of emerging technology selection and assessment based on technology foresight and a fuzzy consistent matrix.

Citation

Lucheng, H., Xin, L. and Wenguang, L. (2010), "Research on emerging technology selection and assessment by technology foresight and fuzzy consistent matrix", Foresight, Vol. 12 No. 2, pp. 77-89. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636681011035762