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Three alternative Middle East peace scenarios

Jerome C. Glenn (Director of the Millennium Project of the American Council for the UN University, Washington, DC, USA. (e‐mail: jglenn@igc.org) (http://millennium‐project.org))
Theodore J. Gordon (Senior Fellow, of the Millennium Project of the American Council for the UN University, Washington, DC, USA. (e‐mail: tedjgordon@att.net) (http://millennium‐project.org))

Foresight

ISSN: 1463-6689

Article publication date: 1 April 2005

1070

Abstract

Purpose

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The article seeks to address the lack of serious, normative scenarios exploring peace in the Middle East.

Design/methodology/approach

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Three normative, backcasted scenarios were written. These were derived from literature searches, interviews with experts in the field, and input from a three‐round Delphi. Actions were identified and rated by the Delphi panel in Rounds 1 and 2. Draft text with areas for comment throughout the scenarios was collected in Round 3 and used to improve the draft scenarios.

Findings

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The scenarios address seven preconditions for peace in the Middle East: secure borders for Israel; establishment of a viable and independent Palestinian state; resolution of the Jerusalem question; ending violence by both sides and building confidence; social and economic development; education; and resolution of Palestinian refugee status.

Originality/value

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The scenarios are intended for use in a variety of settings to help further the Middle East peace process.

Keywords

Citation

Glenn, J.C. and Gordon, T.J. (2005), "Three alternative Middle East peace scenarios", Foresight, Vol. 7 No. 2, pp. 8-20. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680510700085

Publisher

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Emerald Group Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2005, Authors

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