Hindsight and the delusion of control

Abstract

Purpose

To draw attention to a philosophical vacuum underlying the current emphasis on risk assessment.

Design/methodology/approach

Definitions of chance, probability and risk are drawn from the literature and the development of risk assessment is surveyed historically. A critique of the philosophical basis of risk assessment is outlined.

Findings

The paper argues that emphasis on numerical risk assessment disguises the underlying complexity and uncertainty of modern life and leads to a false sense of control. This has implications for the assignment of responsibility and accountability when unintended consequences arise.

Originality/value

The paper raises questions concerning the meaning of “risk” and “uncertainty”, and asks whether “risks” can truly be assessed and managed in a meaningful way. It is intended to provoke thought and debate, and should be of interest to policy makers, academics, business professionals and a general readership.

Citation

Hadfield, L. (2005), "Hindsight and the delusion of control", Foresight, Vol. 7 No. 4, pp. 3-7. https://doi.org/10.1108/14636680510611787