Analysis of repairable system failure data using time series models

Abstract

Repairable system reliability analysis is very important to industry and, for complex systems, replacing a failed component is the most commonly used corrective maintenance action as it is an inexpensive way to restore the system to its functional state. However, failure data analysis for repairable system is not an easy task and usually a number of assumptions which are difficult to validate have to be made. Despite the fact that time series models have the advantage of few such assumptions and they have been successfully applied in areas such as chemical processes, manufacturing and economics forecasting, its use in the field of reliability prediction has not been that widespread. In this paper, we examine the usefulness of this powerful technique in predicting system failures. Time series models are statistically and theoretically sound in their foundation and no postulation of models is required when analysing failure data. Illustrative examples using actual data are presented. Comparison with the traditional Duane model, which is commonly used for repairable system, is also discussed. The time series method gives satisfactory results in terms of its predictive performance and hence can be a viable alternative to the Duane model.

Citation

Xie, M. and Ho, S.L. (1999), "Analysis of repairable system failure data using time series models", Journal of Quality in Maintenance Engineering, Vol. 5 No. 1, pp. 50-61. https://doi.org/10.1108/13552519910257069