An application of the ARIMA model to real‐estate prices in Hong Kong
Abstract
Technical analysis lies on the premiss that short‐term market price at any time is revealed by pattern of prior price movements. Tests empirically the pattern of the real estate prices by employing the ARIMA analysis. Results strongly show that there exist cyclical trends in the office and industrial property prices in Hong Kong. The forecasting method can provide an indication of short‐term market direction, a sense of whether or not the movement will be small or large, and advance warning well ahead of any turning points supplementary to investment strategy. The investor may wish to incorporate forecasts from an ARIMA model into his investment strategy, for timing purposes.
Keywords
Citation
Tse, R.Y.C. (1997), "An application of the ARIMA model to real‐estate prices in Hong Kong", Journal of Property Finance, Vol. 8 No. 2, pp. 152-163. https://doi.org/10.1108/09588689710167843
Publisher
:MCB UP Ltd
Copyright © 1997, MCB UP Limited