Abstract
This paper examined the volatility models for exchange rate return, including Random Walk model, AR model, GARCH model and extensive GARCH model, with Normal and Student-t distribution assumption as well as nonparametric specification test of these models. We fit these models to Bangladesh foreign exchange rate index from January 1999 to December 31, 2012. The return series of Bangladesh foreign exchange rate are leptokurtic, significant skewness, deviation from normality as well as the returns series are volatility clustering as well. We found that student t distribution into GARCH model improves the better performance to forecast the volatility for Bangladesh foreign exchange market. The traditional likelihood comparison showed that the importance of GARCH model in modeling of Bangladesh foreign market, but the modern nonparametric specification test found that RW, AR and the model with GARCH effect are still grossly mis-specified. All these imply that there is still a long way before we reach the adequate specification for Bangladesh exchange rate dynamics.
Keywords
Citation
Ara, L.A. and Rahman, M.M. (2013), "Volatility Modeling of Emerging Foreign Exchange Market: A Case of Bangladesh", Journal of International Logistics and Trade, Vol. 11 No. 3, pp. 19-39. https://doi.org/10.24006/jilt.2013.11.3.19
Publisher
:Emerald Publishing Limited
Copyright © 2013 Jungseok Research Institute of International Logistics and Trade
License
This is an Open-Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited