Ceasefire suspension will drive insecurity in Colombia

Significance

Further incidents, including a grenade explosion in Cali and other attacks on municipal buildings and military facilities, have taken place since the ceasefire was suspended, leading to an escalation of military action against the group. The ceasefire suspension affects three departments: Narino, Cauca and Valle del Cauca.

Impacts

• A prolonged break in the ceasefire will intensify violence in Choco, as well as Narino, Cauca and Valle del Cauca.
• Heightened rural insecurity will negatively affect government talks with other armed groups such as the ELN and the Segunda Marquetalia.
• Illicit rents from drug trafficking and gold mining will dissuade non-state armed groups from negotiating in good faith.